Lula wins fourth term as Flávio Bolsonaro refuses to concede

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil on Sunday. Results were declared shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026. Lula received 51.79% of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro took 48.21%. The margin between the two candidates was approximately 4.3 million votes out of 159 million eligible voters.

Lula, the incumbent from the Workers' Party, described the outcome as a defeat for denialism. His opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, leads the political movement established by his father, Jair Bolsonaro. The former president is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The final result reversed the trend from the first round held earlier in October. In that initial vote, Flávio Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes, while Lula received 53.8 million. The first-round percentages stood at 47.03% for Bolsonaro and 45.16% for Lula. Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985, no candidate who lost the first round has won the second ballot. Polls showed the race tightening sharply in the weeks between the two votes, with Bolsonaro leading by only fractions of a percentage point.

Several factors contributed to Lula's turnaround. The first round featured a record abstention rate of 21%, a pattern more common among lower-income voters and progressives. To counter this, Lula's team mobilized millions of supporters through a WhatsApp channel known as Lula's army. This group sent daily instructions on creating viral content. Lula also began posting on Instagram and TikTok after recently receiving his first smartphone. His digital reach surpassed Bolsonaro's for the first time during the campaign.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced several scandals during the runoff. The magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. Additionally, a dozen watchdog groups published reports alleging that Meta favored Bolsonaro's campaign on social media. Brazil's electoral court ordered Meta to avoid unequal treatment of candidates, while the company called the allegations false and unfounded.

United States politics also influenced the race. President Donald Trump did not openly endorse Bolsonaro but called Jair Bolsonaro's trial a witch-hunt. Trump also imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a defender against what he called Trump's colonial designs. He pursued a multilateral foreign policy that balanced relations with the US, China, and Russia. He also declined invitations to join a Latin American coalition conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

The election result has implications for environmental policy. Under Lula, Amazon deforestation has fallen by more than 70%. His government has also cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous communities. Tom Phillips, a Guardian Latin America correspondent, noted that environmental issues appeared only in the final presidential debate. Voters focused primarily on the economy, public security, and culture war issues. Lula will now work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians who are hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the election. He cited the decision to extend voting hours by two hours, noting that both sides had requested the extension for different reasons. Bolsonaro stated it was impossible to concede the result. Phillips does not expect the challenge to succeed, as world leaders are already recognizing Lula's win. He suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Phillips added that Bolsonaro's political career is likely over, though violence from supporters remains a possibility. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.