UK Aid Spending Likely to Miss 2027 Target by 400 Million Pounds

UK international aid spending is expected to fall 400 million pounds short of its 2027 target due to higher-than-anticipated inflation. The Center for Global Development (CGD) calculated that the Treasury’s central forecast implies aid will reach only 0.29% of national income next year. This figure is 410 million pounds lower than planned. The researchers noted that a 580 million pound shortfall is a plausible outcome, while even the most conservative estimate shows a 250 million pound gap.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD, described the situation as a material reduction in the spending power of UK aid. He stated that closing a 400 million pound gap would allow the government to halve planned cuts to Africa. Mitchell warned that these cuts are likely to cost thousands of lives and result in a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent.

The CGD attributed the deficit to two primary factors. Inflation has outpaced forecasts from the 2025 spending review, increasing national income and raising the financial threshold for meeting the percentage target. A 2025 policy change affecting the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office budget also contributed to the shortfall. The researchers urged ministers to add funds for international aid in this week’s budget to avoid criticism for missing the goal.

The 2027 target of 0.3% of national income is significantly lower than the 0.7% promised in Labour’s election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up resources for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, expressed hope for higher aid spending in the upcoming budget. She argued that hitting the reduced target is a minimum requirement for the government.

Anderson stated that missing the target is not an abstract accounting issue. She cited communities without clean water, girls leaving school, undelivered vaccines, and reduced peace programmes in war zones as consequences of the funding gap. Charities have repeatedly warned that deep aid cuts will damage children’s education and increase disease and death risks in some African countries.

Data released by the FCDO in September showed that cuts under the current government have hit the world’s poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or 118 million pounds. The UK’s overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024. This represents a decrease of 987 million pounds.

The government has prioritized funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and the global vaccines initiative Gavi. It has also maintained humanitarian support levels. In contrast, the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from approximately 9 billion pounds a year to 1 billion pounds. This level would leave the UK unable to cover its existing contributions to the UN and World Bank. An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans for the next three financial years. The spokesperson noted that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides stability for high-impact aid programmes.